Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.008177 0.009229 0.010381 0.011740 0.013303 0.015048 0.017149
2024-10-20 0.006257 0.007612 0.009228 0.011309 0.013934 0.017156 0.021446
2024-10-27 0.005245 0.006699 0.008531 0.011032 0.014389 0.018789 0.025070
2024-11-03 0.004650 0.006178 0.008193 0.011077 0.015157 0.020807 0.029374
2024-11-10 0.004334 0.005963 0.008197 0.011536 0.016487 0.023701 0.035269
2024-11-17 0.003888 0.005505 0.007798 0.011351 0.016834 0.025174 0.039209
2024-11-24 0.003581 0.005206 0.007581 0.011387 0.017486 0.027149 0.044180
2024-12-01 0.003254 0.004841 0.007223 0.011154 0.017666 0.028366 0.048027
2024-12-08 0.003084 0.004694 0.007177 0.011398 0.018629 0.030966 0.054632
2024-12-15 0.002879 0.004472 0.006988 0.011381 0.019141 0.032837 0.060170
2024-12-22 0.002601 0.004109 0.006539 0.010878 0.018739 0.033019 0.062497
2024-12-29 0.002438 0.003920 0.006358 0.010814 0.019110 0.034649 0.067911
2025-01-05 0.002391 0.003928 0.006518 0.011387 0.020757 0.038975 0.079756
2025-01-12 0.002185 0.003646 0.006157 0.010979 0.020493 0.039533 0.083659
2025-01-19 0.002023 0.003428 0.005886 0.010710 0.020466 0.040559 0.088769
2025-01-26 0.001921 0.003309 0.005786 0.010754 0.021071 0.042979 0.097554
2025-02-02 0.001883 0.003301 0.005885 0.011197 0.022555 0.047508 0.112331
2025-02-09 0.001767 0.003141 0.005686 0.011019 0.022685 0.049015 0.119754
2025-02-16 0.001687 0.003043 0.005595 0.011054 0.023286 0.051691 0.130780
2025-02-23 0.001585 0.002892 0.005391 0.010828 0.023268 0.052878 0.137938
2025-03-02 0.001540 0.002852 0.005402 0.011064 0.024341 0.056895 0.153993
2025-03-09 0.001472 0.002760 0.005303 0.011048 0.024817 0.059470 0.166352
2025-03-16 0.001363 0.002578 0.005005 0.010561 0.024094 0.058823 0.168685